Senior MEPs are considering how they would deal with a delay to Brexit and the disruption it would cause to the European Parliament, several officials told POLITICO.
The issue was discussed at a meeting last Tuesday between the European Commission’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and members of the Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group ahead of a vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal on Tuesday in the House of Commons.
An extension to the two-year Article 50 negotiating period would require a request from the U.K. plus unanimity among the EU27. Officially, senior EU figures are reluctant to discuss what will happen if MPs in London reject the deal — “I am not going to go into speculation and a guessing game,” Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told journalists in Bucharest Friday.
But behind the scenes, the EU institutions are having to come to terms with the increasing likelihood that the Brexit date will have to be put back because of the political impasse in London — potentially to give time for a U.K. general election or a referendum on the Brexit deal.
One major problem for the European Parliament would be if the U.K. stays on beyond the European election in May, and into the next Parliament which will be seated in July.
“An extension after the date of the European elections is going to be a conundrum for everybody because there are no rules which can anticipate any of that,” said a European Parliament spokesperson. “If the extension includes the beginning of the next legislature, we might end up having British MEPs voting for the next president of the European Commission and leaving some weeks later.”
“That would certainly complicate things,” the spokesperson added.
MEPs have already settled on the shape of the reordered Parliament containing 705 MEPs — down from the current 751. Forty-six of the U.K.’s seats are being kept for future enlargements, while 27 will be redistributed to other EU countries. But the Parliament agreed in its resolution on the composition of the assembly to keep “current arrangements” if Brexit has not been legally completed.
Whether Britain is still a member temporarily (while it holds a referendum) or permanently (because it has decided to remain in the EU) that will pose problems for the Parliament. The rebalancing of seats means extra MEPs for countries such as France, Spain and Italy. It is unclear what would happen to these new parliamentary seats in the event of the U.K. staying.
Take Ireland, for example. It is due to up its tally of seats from 11 to 13 and has already passed legislation to distribute these among its three regional constituencies. Arrangements are already in place for the election in May, with campaigns gearing up. Dropping the number of seats at the last minute and then adding them back later will pose political problems.
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“The current hypothesis is that we will take decisions … case by case,” said Philippe Lamberts, the co-chair of the Green group, who participated in the meeting of the Brexit Steering Group with Barnier. “If the extension goes beyond the EU elections, the U.K. will need to organise European elections.”
An alternative option if Article 50 needs to be extended by a few months would be to have “second-grade MEPs” from the U.K. in the interim period until the country quits the EU, said the Parliament spokesperson. That is what has happened in the past with countries that joined the EU in the middle of a legislature. “But that would require unanimity because it would request primary legislation,” the official said.
Even if the U.K. does depart on March 29 as planned, the Parliament has other headaches to resolve.
The Parliament will hold two plenaries in April after the 73 U.K. legislators have left. That changes the political dynamics of the chamber at a crucial time when legislators will be wrapping up the final business of the Juncker Commission. In practice, it means that arrangements for allocating speaking time and budgets for the different political groups will have to be redrawn. It may also impact on whether some legislation can achieve a majority.
The European Conservatives and Reformists group, for example, will lose 19 MEPs because of the departure of the British Tories. As a result, its voting power and speaking time will be curtailed for the last month of the Parliament’s mandate.
Though some of the changes may be unpopular with some MEPs, a Parliament official called the changes “easy” to deal with.
“It’s just about recalculating the size of each group,” he said, adding that the budget allocation for the groups in April will be discussed in the Parliament’s executive body, the Bureau, on Monday.
One thing does seem certain. Regardless of the outcome of the Commons vote on Tuesday, MEPs will proceed with their plans to consider and vote on the Brexit deal.
“The European Parliament could go ahead and vote on and approve the agreement, even if it were rejected by the U.K. parliament,” European Parliament President Antonio Tajani told EU leaders at the European Council summit in November.
The text is examined in the Constitutional Affairs Committee before a vote in plenary by the end of February or the beginning of March.
In parallel, the Parliament and the Council are continuing to work on no-deal measures. Parliament officials said Commission Secretary-General Martin Selmayr is scheduled to brief MEPs on the Brexit Steering Group about no-deal preparations in Strasbourg on Monday.
MEPs will, on Wednesday morning, debate the outcome of the House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal.
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