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A majority of Europeans believe the EU is heading in the wrong direction, but Brussels hopes to convert that dissatisfaction into democratic zeal rather than more political apathy.
With a year to go until EU citizens go to the polls, those at the heart of European democracy aspire to a truly Continent-wide democratic conversation in the run-up to the 2019 poll. To achieve that, they must overcome the tendency of European elections to descend into an unruly, barely-connected collection of national votes, with rock-bottom turnout.
Most worrying perhaps in a new EU-funded Eurobarometer survey of 27,600 voters across Europe, released on Wednesday, is that 44 percent say that the EU is headed in the wrong direction, against 32 who say it is headed the right way. That points to a further surge for anti-establishment and Euroskeptic parties.
The EU institutions are throwing money at the problem in an attempt to fight both apathy and the populist tide.
Together, the European Parliament and European Commission are planning to spend more than €30 million on get-out-the-vote advertising and support, aimed in particular at young people and those with soft support for the EU.
Will it work?
Here are the biggest risks that Brussels must overcome in the 12-month election countdown:
Declining turnout
As the EU engages in top-down efforts to enthuse voters, its starting position is that only half of Europe’s adult population say they are interested in the election, according to the new Eurobarometer survey.
That’s on par with surveys conducted prior to the 2014 European Parliament election, in which turnout dropped for the seventh time in a row to less than 43 percent. In Slovakia just 13 percent voted.
With those turnout clouds hanging over the poll, political parties and EU institutions will be forced to divert limited resources away from substantial debates about Europe’s future, in order to cajole people to the ballot box.
One tactic that is likely to succeed is that some countries including Belgium, Spain and Lithuania are stacking two or more elections — from local to national and presidential votes — on the same day as the European vote, in order to boost participation.
Populist wave
Parliament’s pro-EU centrist majority should consider itself lucky that Euroskeptics are unable to unite under one political umbrella.
While Europeans say they appreciate the EU more than ever (67 percent believe their country has benefited from EU membership, according to the Eurobarometer survey), they appreciate the Continent’s traditional centrist parties less than ever.
Between them the center-right European People’s Party and the Continent’s Socialists won 53 percent of the vote in 2014. This time the Socialists in particular are in trouble: Expected poor showings in nearly all the big EU countries including Germany, France, Italy and Poland mean dozens of Socialist seats are at risk, and with them Parliament’s pro-EU majority.
Possible socialist replacements in the political center, such as Emmanuel Macron’s mooted Europe En Marche party, have so far failed to materialize.
Of the young voters the EU institutions are trying to woo with their publicity campaigns, 63 percent say “new political parties and movements can find solutions better” than existing parties. Any attempt to mobilize the youth vote risks rallying them to Euroskeptic parties.
Italy — which is on course to have a left-right populist governing coalition — is a case in point. Italians now show the lowest levels of support for EU membership of any EU country (44 percent), and twice as many people believe their voice isn’t heard at EU level (61 percent to 30 percent), as believe that it is.
EU enemies within
With centrist parties declining, Euroskeptics are grabbing more levers of power, including within centrist groups.
Harshly anti-EU rhetoric is now a regular feature in national government commentary about the EU, and has footholds in four European political groups: the European People’s Party (via Hungary’s Fidesz party), the European Conservatives and Reformists (Poland’s Law and Justice party), Europe of Freedom and Democracy (Italy’s 5Star and League parties), and Europe of Nations and Freedoms (Marine Le Pen’s National Front). Plenty of individual far-left MEPs also harbor doubts about the EU.
Euroskeptic parties — whose raison d’être is campaigning against the Union in its own elections — naturally take the vote more seriously than parties with a broader base, who often treat the elections as a nuisance.
The real risk for the EPP in this context is complacency.
After losing support in big countries such as France, Italy and Poland since 2014, the EPP is cruising toward first place in the election, but may get there with only 25 percent of the vote. That would feel like a hollow victory, in particular if the EPP counts on support from parties such as Fidesz.
Legitimacy gap
The EU’s permanent struggle is to look and feel more like the democracy it claims as a core value.
The Spitzenkandidat process — which was first deployed in 2014 and pushes political parties to choose a candidate to be European Commission president, with the party receiving the most votes most likely having their choice take the top job — could reinforce rather than mend these perceptions.
When told about the system, most voters in the new EU survey agree it increases both the transparency and legitimacy of the European Commission. Yet 70 percent insisted “it only makes sense if accompanied by a real debate about European issues and the future of the EU.”
That debate is lacking at many levels.
None of the parties plan to run primaries to select their Spitzenkandidat and voters cannot cast a ballot for them directly. There’s also the issue of quality. Under the current system, serving prime ministers and presidents are unlikely to run because it would require them to campaign for the Commission post for months.
And in any case, EU leaders are adamant that the final choice lies with them.
The upshot: The choice of Commission president is effectively in the hands of 450 EPP delegates at a Congress in Helsinki in November plus 27 EU leaders, rather than 450 million Europeans.
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