As the end-game in the Libyan conflict approaches, senior European Union officials are struggling to finalise an effective strategy to support a post-Muammar Qaddafi government. Security and economic recovery will be the top priorities in the emergence of a democratic system now that rebel forces in Tripoli have effectively ended Qaddafi’s 42-year autocratic rule.

The apparent victory of the rebels in Libya has broad implications for the EU and for the NATO alliance, which has since the end of March effectively backed anti-Qaddafi forces by providing air support with the declared aim of protecting civilians under a United Nations mandate.

Rolling out a reconstruction roadmap will be an arduous process, said Karel De Gucht, the European commissioner for trade. “You can forget the idea that you can start the reconstruction of the country as of tomorrow,” he said.

EU diplomats and European Commission officials said that it would take some time for Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), the political body formed to lead the campaign to oust Qaddafi, to transform itself into an interim government.

Slow response

The EU has started to draft plans on how it can help the NTC extend its control to the entire country. But some EU and NATO diplomats have been critical, arguing that the EU has been too slow to develop a strategy for Libya.

The EU has been at pains to establish a consensus on how to respond to the Libyan crisis since it erupted in February. Germany was initially at odds with France and the UK, which jointly pushed for a UN resolution for air support to protect Libyan civilians. Member states were also slow to agree on imposing sanctions against the Qaddafi regime.

José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, insisted on Tuesday (30 August) that there “is a policy for Libya”, adding the country would be offered similar economic and political ties to those afforded to Tunisia and Egypt under the Commission’s “partnership for democracy and shared prosperity for the southern Mediterranean”, drafted in March.

This blueprint proposes technical support and billions of euros in financial assistance to bolster the transition to democracy.

Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, is hoping to make headway on an EU plan for Libya at an informal meeting of the EU’s foreign ministers in the Polish resort of Sopot tomorrow and Saturday (2-3 September). This gathering follows an international conference on Libya being held in Paris today – attended by senior officials from the NTC, the UN, the EU and NATO – which aims to agree on a broad roadmap for the reconstruction of Libya post-Qaddafi.

The European External Action Service and the Commission will open an EU office in Tripoli “as soon as security and political conditions allow”, which could happen in the next two weeks. A temporary office was opened in May in the eastern city of Benghazi to liaise with the NTC and to offer expertise in border management, security reform, and the economy.

The Commission announced on Monday (29 August) that it had sent a team of aid experts to Tripoli to fast-track the delivery of water, medical supplies and food to victims of the conflict. The Commission has allocated €70 million in humanitarian aid and set aside €2m to support the NTC in setting up an interim government. An additional €10m is also being made available from the European Neighbourhood Policy budget to be used for rebuilding Libya’s health and education sectors.

Security

Establishing stability and security across Libya remains a top priority for both NATO and the EU. However, the two organisations have so far been reluctant to commit themselves to any mission to train security personnel in Libya – an idea apparently mooted in a leaked UN document written by officials close to Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general.

A NATO spokeswoman said the alliance would continue to conduct air support to protect civilians against Qaddafi loyalists for “as long as it takes”. The alliance has ruled out any further role apart from providing logistical help in delivering aid or supplies.

Similarly, Commission officials and diplomats said that, at this point, the EU was not planning to organise a training mission in Libya, citing budgetary constraints at home as well as strong requests from the NTC that no foreign troops be sent to Libya.

Economic recovery

Member states have also started the complex work of trying to unfreeze Libyan assets and lift sanctions, which diplomats said could take weeks to conclude.

It is estimated that €69bn-€76bn of Libyan assets have been frozen under UN-mandated sanctions. A transitional Libyan government would hope to use the money to rebuild the country and its economy, which is in tatters after seven months of fighting. Commission officials said the country would also need to rebuild its oil sector to get its economy back on its feet. Oil companies in several EU member states, including Italy’s Eni, have had to halt oil operations in the country because of the conflict.

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