Eight weeks out from the midterm elections, both Republicans and Democrats find themselves with a path to a Senate majority. For Democrats, it is a surprising development given this year’s difficult political map: The party is defending nearly two-dozen seats, including 10 seats in states won by President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in 2016. ADVERTISEMENTYet if the party can sweep every race considered a toss-up, it would end up with a 52-48 majority in the next Congress — even while losing Texas, where Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D) is giving GOP Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE a stronger-than-expected challenge. The path for the GOP remains easier — and much more realistic. If Republicans win just two of the eight races considered by The Cook Political Report to be toss-ups — which include five seats held by incumbent Democrats, one held by an incumbent Republican and two GOP seats where the incumbent is retiring — they would keep the Senate with a 50-50 margin and Vice President Pence’s tie-breaking vote. Republicans hope they will actually add to their 51-49 margin given the fact that five of the eight races rated as toss-up by Cook are in states that Trump won by double-digits in 2016: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Tennessee. For now, the most likely scenario envisioned by Republicans and Democrats is one in which the GOP only slightly extends their majority, with an outside chance that a blue wave would sweep Democrats into both the Senate and the House if all the pieces align just right. “Republicans remain the favorite, but the fact that we’re even talking about Democrats having a chance of taking over the majority is astounding and speaks to the problems of the Republican Party and Trump,” said Doug Thornell, who previously worked for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “I’m optimistic we can keep our losses to a minimum or even win the majority,” he added. Republicans began the cycle with visions of building toward a filibuster-proof margin for Trump given the favorable map. Those dreams quickly fell to the wayside with Trump’s low approval ratings and a huge upset last year in a special Senate election in Alabama, where Democrats cut into the GOP majority with a victory by Doug Jones. “I think a Democratic takeover is a stretch because of the map, but the environment probably prevents Republicans from picking up more than one or two seats,” said a Republican Senate strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk freely. A number of Democratic Senate seats in Trump states are now seen as long shots, and Republicans are playing defense in Nevada, which was long seen as a battleground given Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE’s 2016 victory there, but also in Arizona and Tennessee. In Arizona, Democrats have heralded Rep. Kyrsten Sinema as a top recruit and one who’s been able to define herself as an independent with no pushback for months as Republicans fought it out in a contentious primary. Republicans got their preferred nominee in Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE, and they are taking solace in a new poll showing McSally starting to close the gap in a race that’s now a dead heat. Few would have thought Democrats would have any hope in Tennessee, which Trump won by 26 points, but the party recruited a strong candidate in former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D). He faces a Trump ally, Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police GOP senators dodge on treatment of White House protesters Five things to know about Trump’s legal power under the Insurrection Act MORE (R). Bredesen remains a popular candidate and has campaigned as a centrist Democrat; the latest survey from NBC News–Marist showed him up by 2 points. But he’ll still have to sway enough Republicans in a red state that ultimately powered Trump to a 26-point win in 2016. In Florida, Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (D) is facing what could be the toughest reelection bid of his Senate career. He faces a challenge from the state’s Republican governor, Rick Scott, a wealthy former health-care executive who was urged to run by national Republicans. Nelson has faced a spate of headlines in recent months describing a sleepy reelection bid, and Scott has brought in million of dollars to his campaign – much of it coming from his personal fortune. But Democrats are quick to point out that polls continue to show a tight race, with Scott failing to gain much traction despite drastically outspending the three-term incumbent. And Nelson just recently began punching back after weathering months of attack ads. Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE (D-Mo.) faces an equally challenging race against Missouri’s Republican attorney general, Josh Hawley. Trump won the state in 2016 by more than 18 points, and a recent NBC News–Marist poll shows McCaskill and Hawley tied at 47 percent. McCaskill is far outpacing Hawley in the money race, raising more than $20 million compared to the Republican’s roughly $4.75 million. But Hawley is seeking to make the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court a wedge issue, with McCaskill yet to say whether she will vote to confirm him. Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (D-N.D.) is another red-state Democrat looking increasingly vulnerable as she faces off against Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans MORE (R-N.D.) in a state Trump won by nearly 36 points, though she remains personally popular among constituents. Democrats are feeling more comfortable with Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE (D-W.Va.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (D-Ind.), who started the year as two of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate but are now leading in the polls. Manchin, a longtime staple in West Virginia politics, has gone after Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey over his support of an anti-ObamaCare lawsuit, employing a strategy used by Democrats in races nationwide. Manchin’s ad shows him shooting a lawsuit signed by Morrisey that seeks to block the health-care law’s implementation. A MetroNews–Dominion Post poll released in August showed Manchin leading Morrisey by 8 points, even though the state went for Trump by more than 40 points in 2016. And in Indiana, a recent NBC News–Marist poll put Donnelly ahead of Republican businessman Mike Braun 49-43 percent, with the survey also showing Donnelly leading Braun by 20 points among independent voters. It’s possible the race could be decided by contests that are not considered toss-ups at the moment. Democrats are increasingly bright-eyed in Texas, where O’Rourke is running a high-profile race against Cruz. The Lone Star State remains heavily Republican and most public polls show Cruz slightly ahead, but the conservative senator’s lead has narrowed in recent weeks and Republicans have taken notice. The New York Times reported on Saturday that White House Office of Management and Budget Director Mick MulvaneyMick MulvaneyTrump names new acting director of legislative affairs 12 things to know today about coronavirus Mulvaney: ‘We’ve overreacted a little bit’ to coronavirus MORE warned donors and party insiders at a recent closed-door event that Cruz could lose in November, and Republicans and outside groups are having to step in to help out the senator, including an upcoming rally from Trump. Just as Democrats are eyeing Texas, Republicans are likewise targeting an unexpected prize in New Jersey, where Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezGOP’s Obama-era probes fuel Senate angst Government watchdog: ‘No evidence’ Pompeo violated Hatch Act with Kansas trips No time to be selling arms to the Philippines MORE (D) appears in trouble as he remains dogged by a corruption case that ended in a hung jury, with federal prosecutors ultimately throwing out the charges. Menendez is facing off against Bob Hugin, a former pharmaceutical company CEO and Trump’s finance chairman in New Jersey, who has poured in $15 million of his own money into the race. All in all, the races are showing a Senate race unexpectedly in flux, leaving Republican strategists bracing for last-minute surprises that could alter their path to keeping the majority. “Republicans need to prepare themselves for surprise changes and priorities in the last couple of weeks,” the GOP strategist said. “You’d like to think with a map like the one Republicans were given you’d see across the board campaigns that are being run at the top level. You’re just not.” Click Here: camiseta rosario central